Gold prices reached a record high.Wind data shows that spot gold rose to a high of $ 2482.24/ounce yesterday.In July, COMEX Gold Futures rose more than $ 130, an increase of 5.63%.The price of domestic jewelry gold has also risen, and it has now exceeded 750 yuan/gram of integers.
The international gold price that jumped to a historical high has ignited gold stocks in the A -share market.In the early morning of yesterday, the three major A -share index opened low, and a group of gold stocks performed well.As of the close, in the gold concept stock section, Lai Shen's psychic and Zhongrun resources daily limit, Yimin Group, Shenzhen Chinese A, Cuihua Jewelry, Yuyuan Garden, China Jin Gold, Lao Fengxiang, Mancar, Mingpai Jewelry, Shandong Golden Golden Golden Golden GoldWait for 29 stocks to flourish.Kolkata Investment
Gold price and gold stock price
Which one has risen more?
The rise of gold prices began in March of this year, and it broke through the $ 2,200/ounce, $ 2,300/ounce, $ 2,400/ounce integer mark.In July, after more than two months of sidewalk, the gold offensive was resurrected.Yesterday, the spot and futures gold rose to $ 2482.24/ounce, and $ 2487.4/ounce, respectively.
Wind data show that Comex gold and spot gold in London have risen by nearly 20%during the year.
The trend of gold stocks is basically synchronized with gold, and there is a clear leverage effect with the price of gold, that is, to follow and magnify the rise and fall of gold prices.Therefore, under the expectation of the price of gold prices, investors buy high -quality gold mining merchant stocks, and they have a greater chance of gaining greater benefits.
Since the price of gold rising, the stock price of gold stocks has continued to rise since this year.For example, Shandong Gold rose from 22.85 yuan/share on January 2, 2024 to yesterday's closing price of 31.02 yuan/share, an increase of 35%.From 10.13 yuan/share on January 2, 2024, CICC rose to the closing price of 18.17 yuan/share yesterday, an increase of 79.4%.Zijin Mining rose from 12.29 yuan/share on January 2, 2024 to the closing price of 18.47 yuan/share yesterday, an increase of 50.3%.
From the long -term period (four years) to compare the increase in gold prices and gold stock prices.
Although the international gold price is now $ 2482/ounce, it rose to 1900 US dollars per ounce in 2011. Since then, it has fallen all the wayNew Delhi Investment. In 2015, it fell to nearly $ 1,000/ounce, which was almost cut in 2011.It was not until 2020 that international gold prices re -touched the position of $ 1,900/ounce.In other words, if you buy physical gold at a high point in 2011, it takes 9 years to solve it. In the past 9 years, it will not not have an appreciation. If inflation is calculated, it will be severely depreciated.
The price of gold has increased from 1900 US dollars/ounce in 2020 to now $ 2482/ounce, an increase of 30%.
Take a look at the gold stock price of the same time period:
Shandong Gold was 23.12 yuan/share on January 2, 2020 (the highest point of the year reached 33.60 yuan), and the closing price of 31.02 yuan/share yesterday increased by 34%.From 3.88 yuan/share on January 2, 2020, CICC's closing price was 18.47 yuan/share yesterday, an increase of 376%.From 7.83 yuan/share on January 2, 2020, Zijin Mining will increase at 18.17 yuan/share yesterday, an increase of 132%.Kanpur Stock
According to the above comparison, the income of buying high -quality gold miners' stocks is obviously better than the income of buying gold, whether it is short -term or long -term.Of course, there are also individual stocks, such as Western Gold from 15.15 yuan/share on January 2, 2020, to now 12.41 yuan/share.This is not high -quality stocks.Gold miners' stocks are more flexible. In addition to following the industry trend, individual stocks are also affected by the company's operating performance.
In addition, the golden liquidity of gold is relatively poor, and it is not easy to monetize. When the merchants sell it to you, the price is high, and the labor expenses are also seriously discounted. Many banks and merchants also refuse to recycle.
Of course, there are still many factors that triggered the rise and fall of gold stock prices. In the past, the stock price trend of gold stocks was not all reasons for judging the future trend."The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious to enter the market." The phrase is always unforgettable.
How will the gold market perform next?
The agency believes that the Fed's "pigeon faction" signal and political uncertainties are the main "pushing hands" of the rise in gold prices in this round.
Fed Chairman Powell said on Monday that the recent inflation data "enhanced confidence to a certain extent", that is, the rise in price is returning to the Fed's goal in a sustainable manner. This remarks suggest that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut may be on the corner.At present, the market is expected to reduce interest rates at least 25 basis points at the September meeting.
Generally speaking, when interest rates fall, the attractiveness of interest -free assets such as gold will increase relatively, thereby promoting the rise in gold prices.
Zhengxin Futures said that with the gradual balance of the US employment market gap and the decline in the growth rate of the service industry's salary, the inflation of the housing split items has begun to decline.Therefore, the possibility of judging the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts in September is very high, but under the disturbance of the base effect, inflation in the fourth quarter still has a possibility of a phased rebound.
"Under the current situation, the financial market will interpret the logic of the US economic recession expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and bring the profit -driven driving of financial attributes to precious metals." Zhengxin Futures said.
CITIC Investment Futures also analyzed that the Fed's chairman Powell once again released the "partial pigeon" signal, without waiting for the inflation to fall to 2%of the signal to reduce interest rates to precious metals.Generally speaking, inflation is concerned about continuous weakening, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut is expected to strengthen, and precious metals have been obviously supported.Jaipur Investment
Hua Lian Futures Research Report said that there is still some time before the September interest rate meeting. In the short term, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut expectations may change, so it is expected that the price of gold or high shock is expected.
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