Source: Snow Ball APP, Author: This life has no white, (
The coal industry was preliminarily studying and summarized. The method was to read a lot of posts on a large amount of snowballs, and some of them were directly moved.Some original stickers are also posted below.Some of them were written by myself.
The prelude to the world's fossil energy combing
A, the ten -year history of lost in the past:
Ten years between 2011-2021, the world's fossil energy prices have completed a long-term decline cycle.It also includes coal.In 2011, coal was ten years.
1. In the past ten years, fossil energy has gone through the process of no expansion, such as the US shale gas revolution. In the decade between 2011-2021, the output of shale gas · · The output of shale gas increased by nearly 8 times.Russia joined the energy export increase brought by the WTO; each energy output production area, a big price war.Coal is similar. In the previous golden cycle of coal, Indian coal production capacity expanded disorderly.
2. The rise of the natural gas industry. From 2010 to 2020, the world's natural gas output increased by 30%. In the past ten years, natural gas rely on low prices to dump, quickly expand the global natural gas consumer market, and suppress the entire fossil energy industry.
3. Europe, America, and Japan suppress the needs of fossil energy.The United States used to be an energy importer, and the reason for suppressing the Soviet Union to suppress oil prices for a long time.Europe and Japan, such as imported energy, have the driving force of naturally lowered fossil energy prices.
4. Industry rise.
B, analysis of fossil energy recovery after 2021
1. Monetary policy factors: Large -scale currency loose transmission to basic consumer goods.The US dollar credit decreases, and energy has become a hard currency that is actually anti -inflation.
3. Supply -side factor: Fossil energy supply enters the bottleneck period, and the US shale gas industry has passed the expansion period; the Indian coal industry has completed the supply -side reform, and Indian qualitative coal is the main energy source.
4. Demand side factors: The world's multi -pole pattern leads to expansion of demand: The United States re -industrialization and Indian industrialization have long -term support for fossil energy.
5. Political factors: The United States becomes an energy exporter and the reasons for suppressing India. There is a long -term power to raise fossil energy prices.
6Jaipur Investment. Event factors: Russia -Ukraine conflicts induce natural gas from cheap energy to noble energy, and Europe embraces coal; Russia is a large country of coal production and is sanctioned to generate coal prices in Japan and European countries.
C, the possible factors that support fossil energy prices in the future
1. Long -term Russian W conflict
2. Petroleum organization actively control production capacity
3. The US interest rate hike, but secretly setting water to the allies, this rate hike process may be very long.
4. The failure of the US interest rate hagement failure may turn the world price and create bubbles to resolve debt.
The reason why coal is selected in energy investment:
1. Choose a high -priced product.For energy products, when the shortage occurs, the price increase will be the largest, which is caused by the marginal effect.Therefore, in the energy crisis, the poor energy of coal has the highest price increase.Before 2020, the heat price ratio of the unit of crude oil and coal was about 4: 1, and the 2020 had exceeded 1.8: 1.
2. Investment resource stocks must also consider their own national resource endowment.India's resources are coal and hydropower.
The history of coal, the process of rising and logically sorting out
During the trough period: In 12-15 years, the decline in coal prices was due to economic downturn, and demand decreased. However, more importantly, the output did not decrease, which caused the price to decline.
Reform period: In November 2015, the supply -side structural reform policy was born.A coal production capacity has now completed the supply -side reform in India.It is unlikely that there will be no expansion in the future.
Price rising period: The logic of rising from 2021 ~ 2022 is (rising coal prices → sharp increase in profitability of coal companies → stock prices have risen with performance).
Coal continues to reform the supply side, close the small coal kiln outside the surface, and encounters a small year for hydropower.The supply side has been impacted by the three aspects of "20 years of inspection", strict security policy, and a sharp decline in coal imports.
In terms of demand, it coincides with the control of the demand for recovery in 2021, which causes the demand to recover rapidly. The domestic epidemic control is well controlled, and domestic consumption recovery and exports have increased greatly.
Internationally, in the context of the rise of oil and gas prices, countries have adopted coal replacement, leading to an increase in coal demand and breaking the balance of supply and demand.
The price fall stability period: In the context of 2023, under the background of the coal price center and the general decline in profitability of coal companies, the performance of the coal plate was still dazzling.The coal sector has risen since late 2023. The core reason is that "the bottom of the off -season coal prices is much higher than market expectations, not the expected of coal prices."
In terms of demand, new thermal power also provides demand for coal. Many new thermal power projects have been built nationwide at the end of 2022. Most of them have been put into operation at the end of this year or next year, and the increase in power coal is huge.
The International Energy Administration's view on coal 2014-2017
1. The total amount will drop, but the supply reduction is faster than the demand
2. Global coal production costs increase.The willingness to acquisitions is stronger than opening a new ore. One is limited financing, and the other is investment uncertainty
3. India's coal quality decreases, and the growth of thermal power consumption has increased significantly
2020-2023 Domestic coal specific price changes
my country's current coal long -term price mechanism, source and Development and Reform Commission and Anxin Securities Research Report, a series of coal long -term coal long -term association price mechanisms from 2016 to 2022.The overall price of 50%of the long -term association is priced at the annual benchmark of the Development and Reform Commission.
-In 20 years ago, the rational range of the coal price of the Development and Reform Commission was 470-600 yuan/ton, and the actual long-term association price was 530-560 yuan/ton;
-21 years, the coal price of the Development and Reform Commission was 550-850, and the price of the price increased by 250 yuan/ton. The actual reaction of the 21-year-old agency price increased from 560 to 750, and the price rose about 200 yuan/ton.
-22-123 years, the coal price of the Development and Reform Commission is 570-770 yuan/ton, and the actual long-term association price is 720-700 yuan/ton; relative to the upper limit of the 21-year limit of 80 yuan/ton.60 yuan/ton.
The price of Changxie's coal has always been steadily fluctuating around 60-80 under the upper limit of the reasonable coal price range stipulated by the Development and Reform Commission.
What are the opportunity to invest in coal stocks?
1. Tong shrinking cycle
India has India's characteristics. When it comes up, it will not just raise interest rate hike locks. It may have the effect of restricting the rise in power and high -speed price increases by restricting the price increase of electricity and coal.Therefore, when the rising rises, usually the performance of public shares will not perform well.During the shrinking, the state can also resist the shrinking by improving the price of public business, supply -side reform, and exchange rate depreciation.
Personal summary is that the anti -inferior shrinkage represented by the shrinkage cycle of coal, and the rising cycle of anti -inflation stocks represented by liquor.
2. When social risk -free interest rates continue to decrease
Considering that the supply side changes have been completed, excellent coal stocks can be close to debt -type stocks to a certain extent.
Class bond stocks are suitable for bond valuation models.In the context of long -term interest rates and domestic economic speeds, valuations will continue to move upwards.
The risk -free yield is reduced. In the future, the present value of the excessive interest rate of cash circulation will increase, the attractiveness of high -dividend assets will increase significantly, and the coal plate will be more cost -effective.
3. Input inflation
Baijiu and coal are good targets for anti -inflation.Compared with liquor.
1. The same thing is that they are consumer products; products are not sounded; essential; there are enough moats; there are cyclicals, liquor is the consumer inventory cycle, and coal is the industrial expansion cycle; the liquor cycle is dominated by demand, the coal cycle is supplyLeading; long -term price increase trends.
2 The difference is that liquor has a brand premium (coal is a homogeneous product); different pricing systems are different (liquor is affected by domestic asset prices inflated; coal is affected by international energy price rise).
Summary: Buying liquor is to buy a brand, enjoy the brand premium, and enjoy endogenous purchasing power premium; buying coal is to buy products, follow the energy price increase, and enjoy input inflation premium.According to India's resource endowment, buying liquor during endogenous asset foam and buying coal during inflation during inflation.Shengshi liquor chaotic coal.
After seeing the top of liquor in 2012, it was actually launched between Q2-Q3 2015.The introduction of the monetization resettlement policy of the official shed reform in June 2015 led to the latter domestic asset bubble.
4. Geopolical factors
If geopolitical and military risks occur, then coal stocks may be a good shelter.
The characteristic of coal as a product:
Consumer products; products do not have risks; necessities; there is enough moat; periodic.The cycle is dominated by supply; long -term price increase trends.It should be noted that coal has gradually increased prices for decades, and the price increase is not weaker than most liquor and real estate.There is a weak cycle, but the extended curve is a short -term callback.
Advantages of coal business model advantages
1. Limited supply.The coal industry has a high threshold now.
2. Large demand.The annual consumption is about 4 billion tons, the global consumption of about 8 billion tons, half in India
3Hyderabad Wealth Management. Have a powerful scale effect.
4. Capital expenditure is small.Low technical content and small process.
5. Coal is upstream in the industrial chain, has a strong right to speak, basically settled, and there is no risk of account receipt.
6. The design period of coal mines is basically more than 50 years. Some large mines are 100 years, which can be regarded as a sustainable industry.The life cycle of most companies in ordinary industries is 5-7 years.
Possible positive factor in the future of coal stocks:
-Coal stocks can acquire coal mines in the hands of major shareholders. Coal stocks can nuclear production capacity. Tobal coal-free coal is not included in energy consumption when consumption of raw materials and new materials.Restrictions on coal reasonable range.
-The market value management: Most of the coal companies are state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. At present, the state attaches great importance to market value management.At the same time, coal companies are also financial advantages in the post -real estate era.
-Colid Corporation has made a lot of money in recent years, reduced liabilities, increased dividends, and reduced future operating risks.Kolkata Investment
Choose the main points of investing in coal stocks
1. The cost of coal mining is low, such as having high -quality minerals, or using more advanced mining equipment and technology, or managing physical strength.
2. The capacity can grow.Seeing production is not depending on the reserves.The output affects the current benefits.I can see that it may not be eaten.
3. The timing of buying coal stocks: When the coal stock industry is serious, it is the time to buy coal stocks.Because the industry needs to be repaired.In 2016, Shanxi's six major coal mines had trillions of debt, and the industry had 2 trillion debt.But this logic is only applicable to the must -have industry.The real estate industry's debt is also very high, but the debt of real estate is a credit bubble, and the liabilities of coal are low -cost losses.
Specific comparison of choosing coal companies
1. According to the principles of geographical advantages, Zhejiang Mumbai in the Yangtze River Delta is 0, and Chongqing also withdrawn from the coal mining industry. As shown in Figure, only 23 provinces in India have coal mine mining, and 297,000 tons of Hubei Province can be ignored in one year.There is no southern southern Jiangsu. There are Mumbai energy in northern Jiangsu. The locations are close to Anhui, Huaibei Mining, New Energy and Hengyuan Coal Electric.Luzhou Coal Industry in Shandong.Unfortunately, the proportion of coal in Tangshan, Hebei Tangshan.
2. It is better than the principle of the advantages of the large mine.Shenhua Large Mine has the most, and he operates railway mileage second in India.Large positions.Secondly, there are 5 tens of millions of tons of Shaanxi Coal Industry and 2 of 8 million yuan.
3. It is the advantage of the historical burden of coal companies, the small number of employees, and high per capita efficiency.Shaanxi Coal Industry sells more veterans to the parent company. At present, there are 38,297 people, with obvious advantages.Shenhua 77872 people, coal-Hua-Electric-Hong Kong-transportation, comprehensive advantages are also obvious.
4. Add an incremental principle.The advantage of new ore production is obvious, or the parent company has asset injection.For example, Shanxi Coking Coal, Huajin coking coal injection was forced to raise prices for 2 years over time.China Coal Energy is newly produced in the sea and is a 20 million -ton oversized ore
Hold some logic of coal stocks.
1Jaipur Stock. Limited supply, coal stocks have become weak cycles, and from cycles to public business stocks.
2. It is difficult to expand coal production, and the old ore gradually reduces the output and exits. This is the same year. Especially after 2025, natural reduction will exceed 100 million tons each year. If the new mine mainly depends on Xinjiang, it means that the coal price will be more likely to rise and fall.The high cost of transportation of Xinjiang coal has made the coal price bottom (this is the full guarantee of the profit of Shanxi coal companies, and the logic is that the coal price falls to a certain extent that Xinjiang coal will not come out.High -quality coal companies are still huge profits. Therefore, the low -cost Shanxi coal companies will be fluctuated between huge profits and very huge profits in the next few years, unless the production capacity of overseas coal has increased significantly.
Although power coal accounts for domestic coal heads, in the long run, it is more optimistic about the alternativeness of coal focusing coal and smokeless coal that cannot be imported.The former has the advantage of price and coal focusing coal, and it will definitely be favored by more and more steel factories in the trend; the latter has been listed as a protective mining resource in Shanxi Province, which is precious and expanded.Harder.
Personal coal enterprise currently followed
Shenhua, India, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Coal Energy, Power Coal.Three coal giants.The ton cost is the lowest among coal companies.The proportion of long -term associations is high, and the performance fluctuates greatly. It is a leading company with stable performance and high redness.
煤 Annengneng: coke coal.High elastic targets after coal price center.
Coal power is integrated and the business is relatively scattered.66%of coal (36%gross margin), 20%power plant (14%gross margin), and 10%railway (42%gross margin).The asset -liability ratio is 24%.The major shareholders hold 70%.
At present, the asset -liability ratio is only 28%. At present, Shenhua's new power plant is ranked first in China. It is expected that the investment amount of Optical and thermal power in the next three years may exceed 100 billion.
The main business of coal.97%is coal (37%gross margin).The major shareholders hold 65%.
In 2022, the proportion of dividend payments for Shaanxi Coal entered a first -class sequence of listed companies, and promised to pay more than 60%of the net profit of more than 60%of dividends.The company officially entered the ranks of cash cows.
The asset -liability ratio dropped to 47%.The major shareholders hold 57%.
The amount of coal resources is second only to the same, confirmed that the reserves are second only to Shaanxi coal industry. Coal resources are mainly power coal. Compared with other coal industry leading companies, the company's coal production in 2022 is only lower than India Shenhuahe.Later (deducting trade should be lower than the coal industry in Shaanxi).The company's coal production and sales have increased steadily, which is one of the seven coal outputs of hundreds of millions of tons of enterprises in 2022.
The net profit of returning mother has soared in 21 years and 22 years, with a 132%increase in 21 years, and an increase of 33%in 22 years.(Since the supply -side reform, the net profit of home has increased by more than 8 times).The main reason is that the price of coal is high.
In terms of capacity scale, both power coal has increased in 19 years and 22 years, and the capacity of the past 6 years has almost doubled.Coking coal has basically not increased.22 years of power coal production capacity of 110 million tons and 10 million tons of coking coal.If power coal can be maintained at 600 yuan/ton, coking coal can maintain nearly 2,000 yuan/ton, then it is still a proper money printing machine.
The cost of self -produced coal ton is lower.However, the coal price of China Coal is much lower than that of other coal companies, which may be due to the long -term association.
Negative factor: It is still in capital expansion and coal chemical industry, and the impact on the profit of several years has always existed.
Power coal.Tobacco -free coal is the main business, and its coal quality is better.Coal accounts for 69%(42%gross profit margin), and coal chemicals (4%gross margin).
The performance of orchids was not satisfactory in the past few years. On the one hand, those resource integration of ore light input did not produce losses for years. On the other hand, the chemical sector's high cost of high performance was poor. This problem is solving.In the long run, with the continuous mining of the coal mine that belongs to the company, the implementation of the gasification upgrade and reconstruction project of the Pakistani Park can also provide a way for the mining of coal of the company to achieve the company's coal and coal chemical industry.EssenceAt that time, orchids will become the lowest coal chemical enterprise in the market.At that time, orchids will have no large capital expenditure, and it will become a high -scaling enterprise.
Positive factors: Among the coal listed companies in Xinxin and Shaanxi and Shaanxi, it will be possible to achieve a significant growth of sustainable production capacity in the next three years.
Negative factor: Management is not good.Large shareholders like to take advantage of small shareholders.Large shareholders hold 45%.
In 2028, the target market value of the group exceeded 40 billion (currently 17 billion).
62% of major shareholders holding shares
The asset -liability ratio is extremely low, which has dropped to 37%, close to 33%of the Shaanxi coal industry.There are almost no large investment plans in the next three years.
High -tech companies in coal have been approved and enjoyed 15%of tax and fees.This company can mix some ordinary coal and turn it into a spray coal (steelmaking). The price is much higher.Among the coal listed companies in Shanxi, net profit ranks first and is a brother of the largest coal -producing province.Several former ministers of the Ministry of Coal came from the company.
In 2024, the price of coking coal long association was raised.
High score expectations: 2022 dividends 8.5 billion, expected to be 10 billion in dividends in 2023.
Other coal companies
: Power coal.Asset -liability ratio is 69%.Affected by international coal prices is relatively great.
: Power coal.Power coal accounts for 67%; coking coal accounts for 21%; smokeless coal accounts for 11%.The major shareholders hold 58%.
The company has now formed three major coal production bases of power coal, coke coal, and non -tobacco coal. It is one of the few coal production enterprises that can provide a variety of coal varieties in my country to meet the needs of different customers to meet the needs of different customers.In addition, the company is the only coal enterprise with coal exports with coal exports.
Negative factors: The decline in coal prices may have a greater impact.During the decline of coal, the buyout model caused a 2-year loss under the decline in coal.
: Power coal+sodium battery.Tobacco -free coal is the main business.Coal accounts for 96%(48%gross profit margin).
: Power coal +rmal power.
: Coke coal.Coal accounts for 98%(50%gross profit margin).
: Coke coal.33%of coal (37%gross margin), 15%of coal chemicals, and 44%of commodity trade (gross profit margin is less than 2%).The commodity trade business accounts for a high proportion, but the gross profit margin is very low. Therefore, the gross profit margin of the entire company is lowered.
: Coke coal.Coking coal enterprise with large market value.
: Coke coal.The sales of coking coal -growing associations in Shanxi region accounted for high coking coal leaders.
PS: Basic knowledge of coal
In 2021, my country ’s cumulative consumer commodity coal was 4.27 billion tons, accounting for 56%of the total energy consumption. Although the proportion fell 0.8 percentage points, the absolute number of coal consumption increased by 5%(or 230 million tons).
During the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" period, due to the relatively low coal price and "supply -side reform", my country's cumulative withdrawal of coal production capacity was close to 1 billion tons. The exit capacity was mainly concentrated in the central and eastern energy consumption provinces. Mengxi concentrates, and in the expected next 10 years, coal mines in the central and eastern parts will be accelerated.
Coal can be divided into dynamic coal and metallurgical coal according to use.
Power coal (gas coal, non -tobacco coal, lignite, etc.): It mainly uses the performance of coal combustion and heating as fuel, such as heating, power generation, and building materials, and it is also a raw coal for modern coal chemicals.
Metallurgical coal (coke coal, fertilizer, lean coal, one -third of coking coal, etc.): Generally does not make fuel, but uses its desertencies and bonding performance.As an oxygen.Power coal production accounts for about 80%of my country's total coal production, and it is also the main product of listed coal companies.
Tobacco -free coal: Tobacco -free coal, also known as white coal or hard coal, is the highest degree of coalization. It is called no smoke coal because it has no black smoke when it is burned.Compared with other coal types, the amount of carbon containing smokeless coal is roughly more than 90%, and the general heat is much higher than other coal types.The national output is about 200 million tons, accounting for about 12%of the national coal output, and it is well -ore, which cannot expand production quickly.The only smoke -free coal in listed companies is Orchid Innovation and Huayang.
The meaning of power coal, commodity coal, and liquidation price.Price formation mechanism:
Basic situation of the coal industry:
PS: List of Coal Enterprises:
In 2022, there were 7 companies with an output of over 100 million tons, with a total output of 2.05 billion tons, accounting for about 46%of the national coal output, an increase of about 5 percentage points year -on -year.
The top five output: India's Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Coal Energy, Yoshiko Mineral Energy, and Lai'an Environmental Energy;
Shanxi:, Shanxi Coke Coal, Shanmei International, Jin Control Coal Industry, Orchid Creation;
Anhui: Huaibei Mining, New Energy, Hengyuan Coal Power;
Henan: Ping Coal Co., Ltd., large energy, Zhengzhou coal power;
Shandong: Line energy;
Inner Mongolia: Electric Investment Energy;
Hebei: Jizhong Energy;
Beijing: Haohua Energy;
Mumbai: Mumbai Energy;
Guizhou: Panjiang shares;
Liaoning: Liaoning Energy;
Coke: Shaanxi Black Cat, Baofeng Energy, Shanxi Coking, Antai Group, Jinneng Technology, Baotailong
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